By The Star Queen · Star Queen Chronicles
Header photo: NASA’s Perseverance rover took this selfie with the Ingenuity helicopter nearby on April 6, 2021, the 46th Martian day of its mission. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS
Mars fans, I won’t sugarcoat this one. 🔴 This is a Mars launch window year, and it’s a quiet one. Still, some wonderful things are happening, and a few big changes are coming. Here’s the full picture.
SpaceX and Mars: The Plan Shifted 🌙➡️🔴
A year ago, Elon Musk put the odds of sending Starships to Mars in this window at about 50/50. That’s off the table. Space.com’s Oct. 14 piece says the next window opens late 2028 into early 2029.
In February, Musk announced a pivot toward building a city on the Moon first (for NASA’s own Moon plans, see my Moon post). According to Space.com’s report, he said the Mars effort would start in roughly five or six years, and that a crewed Mars flight could happen around 2031. Those are Musk’s words and goals. I’d treat them as hopes, not a schedule.
SpaceX’s own Mars page lists cargo flights no earlier than 2028. Some analysts see the Moon as a detour, while others see it as a proving ground for the same technology.
SpaceX also announced a private, crewed Mars flyby on May 21, minutes before a Starship launch attempt that was scrubbed. It would be led by crypto entrepreneur and Fram2 veteran Chun Wang, per Space.com’s Tariq Malik. SpaceX gave no date and no other crew names. The flyby itself would last just two hours, after long legs to and from Mars, and the ship would pass the Moon on the way. Space.com also notes that several earlier private Starship trips were announced and later canceled.
ESCAPADE: Two Probes Heading Out 🛰️🛰️
NASA’s ESCAPADE twins, Blue and Gold, launched on a New Glenn on November 13, 2025. They have been looping around the Earth–Sun L2 point, waiting for the right moment. The mission team’s page says a Mars-bound burn in November 2026 uses a close Earth pass to speed them up. They arrive in September 2027.
I found secondary sources listing the burns as November 7 and 9. The mission page only says “November,” so please treat those dates as unconfirmed.
Their scientific mission is to study how the solar wind stripped away Mars’s atmosphere. Science begins in late spring 2028, after a few months of fine-tuning their orbits. NASA says the transition must be done before the 2027 solar conjunction.
MMX: Japan’s Phobos Mission Launched 🇯🇵
On October 19 at 3:41 p.m. Eastern (04:41 on October 20 in Japan), JAXA’s MMX lifted off from Tanegashima on an H3 rocket. My launch-providers post has the rest of that week’s launches. JAXA says the spacecraft separated about 71 minutes later and was placed on its planned trajectory, and KeepTrack notes it was the week’s only deep-space launch. According to ESA, here’s the timeline:
- August 2027: Mars orbit insertion.
- September 2027: Orbit around Phobos begins.
- Early 2029: MMX releases the French-German Idefix rover, a 25-kg rover that will be the first on a moon other than our own.
- 2030: The spacecraft lands on Phobos and collects samples.
- 2031: The sample capsule returns to Earth, landing in Australia. At least 10 grams of Phobos material are expected.
NASASpaceflight lists the first Phobos landing “no earlier than December 2028,” but ESA’s official page says 2030. I’m going with ESA.
Mars Sample Return: Canceled 💔
This is the hard one. Congress canceled Mars Sample Return in its 2026 appropriations, which cleared Congress in January. Space.com wrote on Jan. 16 that “one big-ticket item remains canceled, however: MSR.”
That leaves Perseverance’s carefully sealed samples on Mars. I haven’t found a replacement plan from NASA.
NASA is working on other Mars projects:
- SR-1 Freedom is NASA’s planned first fission-powered interplanetary spacecraft, launching in December 2028. It will carry three SkyFall helicopters that arrive about a year later, according to Space.com. The architecture isn’t final.
- Mars Telecommunications Network: NASA awarded Blue Origin a contract on September 1 (up to about $700 million), with delivery by the end of 2028. It is a single spacecraft. Rocket Lab filed a formal protest with the GAO on September 11, and Aviation Week reports that NASA suspended work while it is pending. I haven’t seen the outcome.
- Rosalind Franklin: ESA’s rover is scheduled to launch no earlier than late 2028 on a Falcon Heavy from Pad 39A, per NASA.
China’s Tianwen-3: A Serious Contender 🇨🇳
China’s Tianwen-3 plans to launch around 2028 on two Long March 5 rockets from Wenchang. It aims to bring back about 500 grams of Martian samples in 2031. Chief scientist Hou Zengqian said the equipment is in the prototype development phase and the landing site will be finalized by the end of 2026, according to Space.com. Former NASA Mars chief Scott Hubbard called the progress, if accurate, a “Sputnik moment.” That’s Hubbard’s opinion, not an official statement.
The Star Queen’s Take 👑
Mars this year feels like a pause before the big window in late 2028. ESCAPADE and MMX are real science, and the losses of MSR and the 2026 Starship dream sting. But the next window could be a crowded one, with Rosalind Franklin, SR-1 Freedom, Tianwen-3 and perhaps SpaceX all aiming for it. I’ll be here for every update. 💫
Keep reading: The rocket at the center of Mars plans is in my Starship post, and the pads it will need are in my spaceports post. Starting Saturday, Oct. 31, my Basic Rocket Science series begins with Part 1: how a rocket actually works.
Sources
- Space.com, “SpaceX’s Starship just turned 10 years old. When will it go to Mars?” (Oct. 14): https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacexs-starship-just-turned-10-years-old-when-will-it-go-to-mars
- Space.com, SpaceX’s Moon-city shift (Feb. 9): https://www.space.com/astronomy/moon/a-city-on-the-moon-why-spacex-shifted-its-focus-away-from-mars
- SpaceX, Mars: https://www.spacex.com/humanity/mars/
- Space.com, Mars flyby announcement (May 22): https://www.space.com/space-exploration/private-spaceflight/this-cryptocurrency-billionaire-will-fly-spacexs-1st-private-starship-to-mars-but-when
- NASA, ESCAPADE: https://science.nasa.gov/mission/escapade/
- ESCAPADE team, mission design: https://escapade.ssl.berkeley.edu/mission-design/
- ESA, MMX launch: https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Mars_moon_lander_set_to_launch_on_19_October
- NASASpaceflight, MMX launch (Oct. 19): https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2026/10/mmx-launch/
- Space.com, NASA budget (Jan. 16): https://www.space.com/space-exploration/in-rejection-of-trumps-deep-cuts-congress-passes-usd24-4-billion-budget-for-nasa
- Space.com, Rocket Lab protest (Sept. 11): https://www.space.com/space-exploration/missions/rocket-lab-protests-nasas-decision-to-award-blue-origin-usd700-million-mars-orbiter-contract
- Space.com, SR-1 Freedom and SkyFall (Mar. 24): https://www.space.com/astronomy/mars/nasas-1st-nuclear-powered-interplanetary-spacecraft-will-send-skyfall-helicopters-to-mars-in-2028
- NASA, Mars Telecommunications Network award (Sept. 1): https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-selects-blue-origin-as-mars-telecommunications-network-provider/
- Aviation Week, protest (Sept. 15): https://aviationweek.com/space/budget-policy-regulation/nasa-stops-work-mars-orbiter-after-contract-protest
- NASA, Rosalind Franklin (Apr. 16): https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/mars-rosa/2026/04/16/nasa-begins-implementation-for-esas-rosalind-franklin-mission-to-mars/
- Space.com, Tianwen-3 (Sept. 9): https://www.space.com/astronomy/mars/china-on-track-to-launch-mars-sample-return-mission-in-2028-if-accurate-this-represents-a-sputnik-moment
- JAXA, MMX launch result (Oct. 20 JST): https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2026/10/20261020-1_e.html
- KeepTrack, Week in Review for Oct. 18–25 (Oct. 25): https://keeptrack.space/week-in-review/week-in-review-2026-10-25